Contrarian Investment Strategies - The Next Generation Review

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Contrarian Investment Strategies - The Next Generation ReviewThe key idea in this book constitutes sound common-sense advice to any investor: buy a diversified portfolio of out-of-favor stocks with sound underlying businesses (e.g., low P/E firms) and sell when the market recognizes their value. The book is controversial because it slams current academic theories on how the market works, especially the idea of "efficient markets". Dreman believes that simply because of the way our minds work, the market tends to systematically over-react or under-react to news (especially earnings reports), and this can be exploited forever (because the way our minds are wired is not going to change). Other controversial ideas: 1) don't buy index funds (because the committees which make indexes tend to put in firms which have had a price run-up and drop firms which have had a price decline, so that buying the index involves buying high and selling low); 2) don't buy NASDAQ stocks unless they have great volume (because NASDAQ market-makers are not regulated enough, and will cheat you on the spread); 3) avoid international (non-US) stocks (because international markets have performed much worse than the US stock market over time); 4) equities are a safer way to hold money than treasury bonds or gold or cash (because of inflation and taxes). The author presents fairly detailed statistical evidence to show that his methods have worked over the past several decades. This is actually evidence that even academics are beginning to notice.
That said, it should be noted that the author's Kemper-Dreman fund (ticker: KDHAX) has done pretty badly in the last few years. Also, some of the stock picks in his Forbes column have been horrible. The most glaring example would be Prison Realty (ticker: PZN), which is currently hovering on the verge of bankruptcy. Dreman recommended it because of its REIT status and its high dividend yield both of which went away shortly after.
My 2c: consider the guy's broad investment strategies with respect, but don't follow his (or anyone else's) picks without putting in your own research.Contrarian Investment Strategies - The Next Generation Overview

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