Showing posts with label heuristics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label heuristics. Show all posts

Discussion of the Method: Conducting the Engineer's Approach to Problem Solving (Engineering & Technology) Review

Discussion of the Method: Conducting the Engineer's Approach to Problem Solving (Engineering and Technology)
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Discussion of the Method: Conducting the Engineer's Approach to Problem Solving (Engineering & Technology) ReviewThis book came recommended to me by a professional engineer. As I started turning the pages during a first skim read, it struck me that Koen has brought together a huge amount of experience on engineering with a deep understanding of philosophy (to his credit, both Western and Eastern) plus a range subjects from classical literature, world religion and the vagarities of world languages and forged them into a brilliant synthesis of remarkable clarity and originality.
His central thesis is "All is heuristic" (All is rule of thumb). He has surrounded this argument with a phalynx of other heuristics (59 in total)that range from the practical (e.g., at some point in the project, freeze the design) to the metaphysical (e.g., sincerity of belief and the inability to disbelieve are poor justifications for claiming that a belief is true) to the paradoxical (e.g., if a concept produces paradoxes, unexplained complexities or unexpected departures from expected results, better consider it a heuristic)
In writing this book, Koen has both mastered and melded a number of seemingly imiscable disciplines - philosophy, linguistics, theology - with his own professional field of engineering (he is professor of Mechanical Engineering at University of Texas at Austin and a fellow of the American Nuclear Society). It is reminiscent of the way that Thomas Acquinas reconciled Christianity with Philosophy.
This is no mean feat, and Koen's book, unpretentiously entitled "a discussion", is an intellectual tour of the first order. Of course, his many references mean so much more if you are familiar with them. If you haven't, be sure to look them up - your life will be immeasurably enriched. In any event, Koen illuminates a path to greater understanding. His prose is very engaging and the book is well suited for general audiences. It is one of those books that begs to be read and re-read.
One can only wonder if Koen's book had been available earlier (it was published in 2003), would we have been faced with such disasters as Challenger and Columbia, as the Ford Explorer, Chevy Corvair, Ford Pinto, Bhopal, etc. A little more humility with the inherent uncertainties of engineering life might have made a positive difference. This book strives hard - and I believe succeeds - at doing just that. Bravo, Professor Koen for shedding new light on old problems. It comes as no surprise that Koen has won high awards for teaching excellence (W. Leighton Collins and Centennial Medallion) - both from the American Society of Engineering Education.Discussion of the Method: Conducting the Engineer's Approach to Problem Solving (Engineering & Technology) Overview

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The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (McGraw-Hill Series in Social Psychology) Review

The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (McGraw-Hill Series in Social Psychology)
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The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (McGraw-Hill Series in Social Psychology) ReviewThis is a fascinating book analyzing how we are all far less Cartesian than we think. In other words, a slew of predictable human bias flaws what we feel is our own objective judgment. The author eminently demonstrates this point by forcing the reader to take a 39 questions test at the beginning of the book. This test is stuffed with all the traps that illustrate the human judgment flaws that he analyzes thoroughly in following specific chapters.
You can view the test as a very entertaining IQ test from hell. The questions seem often simple. But, they are not. Other times, they are obviously difficult. I got a bit more than half of them correct. This was mainly because I had some knowledge or experience regarding certain traps the questions presented. I had made the mistake before. So, I learned from that. When I did not have any prior knowledge of a question, my results were very human, meaning not that good. But, learning the correct answer was both fun and educating.
The author touches on several fascinating probability and statistic concepts. One of them being the Bayes theorem, which suggests that medical screen test can be highly unreliable despite being touted as 80% to 90% accurate. In other words, you better understand the Bayes theorem better than the medical specialists who screen you for various diseases. Because, based on the author's study, doctors don't have a clue. Another chapter had an excellent discussion on correlation vs. causation. This includes some tricky nuances that many analysts in the financial industry trip upon. Another interesting probability concept is why it takes only 23 people in a room to have greater than a 50% that two of them share the same birthday. This seems impossible, but it is true.
The book has obviously a lot more than I am letting on here. I am not going to ruin it for you. It is really fun, educating, and interesting to read. You will also learn a whole lot about how you think, how others think, and how people think in groups. You will also understand how tricky it is to ask truly open and objective questions. Also, polls that seem objective are not due to the subjective structure of the question. I think you will enjoy this book, and I strongly recommend it.The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (McGraw-Hill Series in Social Psychology) Overview

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